Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker: While market awaits tariff update, China keeps buying copper

Research evidence excerpt

Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker: While market awaits tariff update, China keeps buying copper

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

16 July 2026

Base Metals Supply & Demand

Tracker

While market awaits tariff update, China keeps buying

copper

Global Commodities Research

Gregory C. Shearer

(44-20) 7134-8161

gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Copper: Ali A. Ibrahim

(44-20) 3493-6438

• Chinese copper demand indicators slump vs a very high base effect last ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc

year… Our consumption-weighted end-use indicator for Chinese copper

Ananyashree Gupta

demand declined sharply in May to now register at -5% yoy YTD through (91-22) 6157 3627

5M26 (Figure 23Consumption-weightedenduseindicatorforChinesecoperdemandgrowth). Significant weakness was maintained across construction ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com

while renewable installations faced a final month in May of an extremely J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

elevated base level last year given the rush to install capacity before June 2025

when the tariff rate for wind and solar installations moved off the more

advantageous fixed-price tariff system. Adding to the outsized yoy weakness

in May, grid investment also came in well below a uniquely strong May 2025

base level, likely tied in with the massive renewable rush last year.

Nonetheless, YTD grid investment is still around +13% yoy through May and

the particularly strong base level effects in renewables and grid will largely

fade from June onwards.

• While apparent consumption continues to diverge higher amid resilient

refined production and continued inventory draws. Even when facing a

similarly strong 2025 base, Chinese apparent consumption continued to