Oil Markets Weekly: A familiar sequence

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Markets Weekly: A familiar sequence

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

16 July 2026

Oil Markets Weekly

A familiar sequence

Global Commodities Research

Natasha Kaneva

(1-212) 834-3175

natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

Lyuba Savinova

Every prolonged geopolitical crisis forces policymakers—and markets—to revisit (1-212) 270-3781

lyuba.savinova@jpmchase.com

their assumptions. The process is rarely linear. No analogy is perfect, but the policy

Artem Fakhretdinovevolution around the Strait of Hormuz is starting to look increasingly familiar:

(1-212) 272-1839

bargaining, breakdown, escalation, and then back to bargaining. artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

The latest escalation stems from Iran’s attempt to redefine the terms under which

commercial vessels transit the Strait. Rather than pursuing full closure, Tehran

appears intent on establishing authority over navigation itself through mandatory

transit protocols and transit fees. Oman responded by opening a US-backed

corridor along its coast, enabling stranded vessels to leave. When several ships

attempted to transit without complying with Iran’s requirements, Iran struck

commercial vessels off the Omani coast to reinforce its position. The US responded

by reinstating sanctions on Iranian oil exports and resuming a blockade of Iranian

ports. Iran, in turn, announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed once again. In a

major escalation—breaking years of relative calm—the Iran-backed Houthis

launched missiles at Saudi Arabia.

Figure 1: Crude tanker departures from Hormuz, by route

mbd,10-DMA; IMO route: the vessel transits via the standard, internationally recognized channels through the

center of the Strait; Iranian route: the vessel transits along the Iranian side of the Strait, passing near Larak Island;