High Yield Energy: Oily E&P Model Book Update

Research evidence excerpt

High Yield Energy: Oily E&P Model Book Update

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

16 July 2026

High Yield Energy

Oily E&P Model Book Update

Tarek Hamid AC

(1-212) 834-5468

tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com

Aaron Rosenthal, CFA

Failure is part of success. The end of the ceasefire in Iran has driven a wild ride (1-212) 270-4584

aaron.rosenthal@jpmorgan.com

in crude oil prices. The situation has swiftly changed over the last two weeks, with

Nevin Mathewa re-escalation of conflict in the region characterized by attacks on tankers, military

(1-212) 834-5714

infrastructure, and civilian infrastructure. Front-month crude prices rallied $10/bbl nevin.mathew@jpmchase.com

or 15% in the last two weeks to $79/bbl. More importantly, pricing along the curve

Elle Boyd

has shifted higher as well, with FY27 strip pricing rising $5/bbl to $71.40. The path (1-212) 270-7283

to de-escalation is uncertain but will largely be driven more by allies than the elle.boyd@jpmchase.com

principals (Iran and US). We wrote and spoke about a scenario similar to this in our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

midyear outlook two weeks ago - with the Straits ostensibly open but with periodic

interruptions driven by attacks due partially to decentralized Iranian military

leadership and internal jockeying. Regardless, we expect oil to continue to flow out

of the region.

I don't see pitches down the middle anymore - not even in batting practice.

Producers have largely been disciplined with their development plans and have

been reluctant to announce any major increases in activity. We are seeing evidence

of volume growth within the High Yield E&P cohort, but that growth has largely

been through the drill bit with operators reporting better well productivity and

operational efficiencies.