INTERNATIONAL FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL FIRST TO MARKET

into Q2 results for JCDecaux given solid trading in Europe, better than feared trends in the Middle East,

incremental World Cup revenues and ongoing margin improvement that confirms the turn-around story. As we outlined

in our March 2026 deep-dive on the European Outdoor advertising market, with a corresponding upgrade of the subsector (“It’s

about time”, here), we believe the sector is at an inflection point, with multiple structural tailwinds continuing to build (see below)

as Outdoor takes share within the advertising mix, supported by the ongoing digitisation of billboards. While the shares have

outperformed YTD (+38% versus CAC40 +3%), investor sentiment and near-term advertising momentum have softened

somewhat in recent months, largely reflecting geopolitical developments that weighed on passenger volumes, in particular in

the Middle East (5% of revenues for JCD). However, the key advertising data points appear to be stabilizing and trending

incrementally better, suggesting the demand backdrop is improving. We preview our JCDecaux estimates ahead of Q226

results (due July 30th) and overall, we anticipate a solid performance in the quarter with the company likely to over-achieve

guidance for c.3% organic growth (JPMe +3.4%, VA Cons +3.2%), driven in particular by Street Furniture and Transport helped

by incremental World Cup revenues (spread across Q2 & Q3). Our H1 operating margin estimate of €329m stands about 3%

above consensus estimates, likely triggering further upgrades and as such we place the name on Positive Catalyst Watch.

Next to better than expected Q2 results, we expect continued trading momentum also into Q3, and anticipate Q3 guidance on

the day for well above 5% organic growth in Q3 (JPMe 5.7% vs VA Cons 4.9%).