Australian Banks: AFG Index: A pulse check on Australian mortgage flows

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks: AFG Index: A pulse check on Australian mortgage flows

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

Australian Banks

AFG Index: A pulse check on Australian mortgage flows

The Australian housing market is in a period of flux, with changes to investor tax Australia

settings arriving at a time when affordability was already stretched across most

major cities. The AFG Index released today shows that lodgement growth has

clearly slowed, with total value of lodgements up just 1% in the Jun-26 qtr vs +23% Andrew Triggs AC

in the Mar-26 qtr (noting that the Budget was released partway through the qtr in (61-2) 9003-8919

andrew.triggs@jpmorgan.com

early May). Investor behavior was described as more cautious or “patchy” as

Kelsey Bentley

borrowers digest the Federal Budget changes to CGT and negative gearing. (61-2) 9003 7482

Furthermore, June Cotality data showed a decline in the national Home Value kelsey.bentley@jpmorgan.com

Index and some weakness in forward-looking indicators. We expect these negative J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

signals will firm up as more data points arrive (bank reporting commentary, ABS

housing finance commitments and APRA credit data). While we have already

reduced our Australian housing loan growth forecast to ~4% in FY27/28, we note

bank share prices have rallied recently and the major banks are trading back at

17.3x 12mth fwd PE (on avg) or 0.87x vs ASX Industrials 200, up from the 5yr

average of 0.78x.

• AFG Index showed a volume deceleration in the June qtr. AFG’s mortgage

index for the June quarter showed that headline broker-originated momentum

was solid. AFG reported its best June quarter on record, with just under 39,000

mortgages lodged worth $28.1bn. However, under the hood momentum is