EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 16 July 2026

RUB Higher initially in usd/rub with the fix coming in at 78.15, but the pair later dribbled a touch

lower to 77.75. Expect to see renewed pressure to the upside and I think there's every chance

that we make new highs for the Summer in the next few days.

ZAR USDZAR back down to recent support at 16.32/33 and have reduced half of what I sold

towards 16.50 given Middle East tensions remain high. In the short term struggling to see how

things ramp down from here, as Iran continues to attack ships in the SoH, rumours continue

around Trump sending troops in, and there are worries other oil routes could be attacked. On

the flipside though US inflation this week has been softer, and with lower US yields and

cooling Fed hike expectations it should provide a supportive backdrop for EM. Therefore

remain pro-actively trading around a core USDZAR short, selling rallies towards16.45/50.

Flow wise we saw some RM demand for ZAR yesterday, HFs remain ZAR sellers (9/10 days),

and systematics ZAR buyers (8 out of last 10 days).

TRY Price action in TRY remains sticky around state-bank offers, currently near 47.0550. Following

good sized inflows on Monday, our flows were more balanced on Tuesday and yesterday. We

continue to run long TRY positions, as we believe that any change in the FX policy framework

is unlikely anytime soon. There also appears to be limited near-term political pressure on the

framework, with political risks contained for now. Early elections are seen as highly unlikely

before late 2027. There are definitely signs that disinflation process has stalled, but inflation