G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A N

laoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com G10 FX Daily Report -16th July 2026

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 16 July 2026

JPY No change in view here, price action of JPY in relation to US yields has been poor and it sends a

continued signal to the authorities that the market does not believe they want to turn JPY around

and/or they are powerless to do so. I continue to think both of these are wrong and as Jiji reports

Takaichi’s approval rating is sliding below 50% at the crunch time for her legacy I think

authorities could become more frustrated/impatient that their signal is not being taken seriously -

especially if - as we have started to see overnight - JGBs start to weaken again. As ever, timing

and risk management are the considerations here, I uncrossed my cross JPY into straight

USDJPY given PPI and Williams yesterday, net flows trends have been nowhere while I would

note we have seen a couple of bits of JPY demand out of Japan albeit modest for now.

CHF EURCHF off the recent highs and USDCHF back on a mid 0.80 handle as the dollar softness

yesterday drags the pair lower. I remain bearish CHF, but worried that if risk really starts to turn

on the ME and with the leveraged market short CHF, the franc may find some support. Remain

long USDCHF but leaving room to add if we get closer to 0.8000. We get the SNB minutes out

today at 08.30, where focus will be on the language change around FX intervention.

AUD The AUDUSD break of 0.70 resistance was cut short by a drop in consumer inflation

expectations, despite the print having limited impact on the RBA pricing for this year. With US

CPI and PPI both missing estimates, USDCNY fixing coming lower, and AUD still a high