TTE, AKRBP, BP, SHEL, ENI: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

TTE, AKRBP, BP, SHEL, ENI: EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 16 July 2026

COMMODITIES - Brent steady as Trump weighs further re-escalation

- The US continued to intensify its strikes on Iran, seeking to “degrade Iran’s ability to threaten mariners as the IRGC said the

Strait would remain closed until the US ends its strikes and the blockade of Iran ports. Iran said it had targeted American facilities

in Jordan in retaliation. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, said his country’s security depended on

maintaining “Iranian arrangements” in the Strait of Hormuz. The WSJ reported that Trump was leaning towards expanding

military operations and discussed the seizure of Kharg Island. Iran released an American citizen detained since Dec 2024, which

Trump praised as a gesture of goodwill

- Despite the re-escalation, US Central Command said about 300 ships passed through the Strait in the last week, about half of

which were helped by US forces. India has directed ship owners and managers not to use the Strait

J. P. Morgan View

- The NY session was quiet, with FP nearly unch, but Trump made several escalatory remarks after the close, sending FP ~$1

higher since and pushing TI above $80. Desk view remains bullish, as the US launches more rounds of strikes against Iran today,

and Ghalibaf commented that Iran is not necessarily seeking war but remains prepared to fight to protect its national security and

interests. Expect FP and spreads to continue moving higher from current levels, as the possibility of Red Sea flows being

compromised and further escalation appears more likely.