INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 16, 2026

20 SECONDS:

- Combination of tech, broadening and earnings driving global equities.

- Earnings were the clear narrative in EU yesterday: ASML delivered strong earnings & raised outlook

but market not rewarding (similar to Samsung…), while CFR strength has positive read-across to global

consumer (see our latest Thematic Pulse).

- Seeing a repeat of Tech earnings playbook with TSMC this morning - headline beat & capex ahead of

buyside bar, but margins below JPMe 69.5%, with Taiwan futures lower post print.

- Tech Rotation evident: out of Semis into Software & Hyperscalers. All eyes on hyperscaler capex in next

week’s earnings (buy side bar very elevated). Growing challenges incl. regulatory pressure (NY

moratorium on new hyperscale data centers) & model shrinkage (Bonsai & AAPL talks, reduces need

for data center capacity).

- Latest Flows & Liquidity piece dives deeper into Leveraged ETFs: team sees more room for

deleveraging, but notes excessive growth can be self-correcting. Watch for Korea announcement on

measures to address leveraged ETFs for key AI names today.

- On Broadening, attacks continue in ME but focus skewed towards US Macro yesterday: PPI surprised

to the downside further easing inflationary fears after soft CPI and removing July Fed hike possibility.

This eased concerns of a spike in real rates, which has previously acted as MOMO Kryptonite.

- EU Politics: In the UK, Mahmood reported to be named as Chancellor, supporting gilts & GBP. China’s

record high surplus with EU driving fresh rounds of EU Industrial Policy headlines: from Rare Earths

to growing support from Merz on EU vs China stance.

- China has been topical.