Today‘s Morning Meeting

Research evidence excerpt

Today‘s Morning Meeting

Europe Equity Research

Europe First to Market 16 July 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting

AFL | CW | French Telecoms (Akhil Dattani)

French competition authority confirmed to review entire SFR deal. Our thoughts

The French competition authority has just issued a press release outlining that Iliad’s portion of the targeted SFR deal has been

referred to it for review, by the EC. Note: (1) Under EC merger rules, Bouygues and Orange were required to file their portions

of the SFR deal with the French authorities, whereas Iliad had to file with the EC. Today’s referral means the entire transaction

will now be reviewed by France. We felt it inevitable the transaction would end up led by one authority, rather than split between

the two (complex to manage), (2) French authorities have long been involved in deal negotiations. Helpfully, press commentary

suggests they are both well informed, and directionally supportive, (3) We had hoped French familiarity with the transaction

would support an expedited review. But today’s press release states “complexit[ies] of the case [mean] the review will last at

least 18 months”, which will disappoint, (4) We acknowledge concerns French Telcos may struggle to “work” amidst a long

regulatory review. We disagree. Firstly, both Bouygues and Orange are already -10% off their highs on satellite risks, and the

aforementioned “travel and arrive” fear. Secondly, we expect both names to steadily beat and raise guidance, supporting DD

earnings CAGRs, and they also screen extremely cheap. Hence, we consider them conviction buys even on their standalone

merits, even before considering consolidation related optionalities.