Primo Brands: 2Q26 Preview: Continue to View Set-Up as Constructive

Research evidence excerpt

Primo Brands: 2Q26 Preview: Continue to View Set-Up as Constructive

Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6735 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Following Primo Brands’ business transformation over the past

four-plus years to a pure-play water company focused on North

America, the company has improved structurally (faster top-line

and structurally higher margins) and garnered increasing

investor attention, particularly following the merger with

BlueTriton. The newly combined company (Primo Water +

BlueTriton) creates a more scaled platform across channels with

a number of leading brands and presents a compelling

opportunity for value creation both from an operational and

YTD 1m 3m 12m strategic perspective. While the company has experienced a

Abs 52.5% 1.3% 26.2% -12.5% series of missteps during the initial integration phase, valuation

Rel 32.6% 1.0% 16.6% -47.5%

is significantly depressed and we remain constructive on the

Company Data longer-term outlook for the company.

Shares O/S (mn) 160

Valuation52-week range ($) 29.23-14.36

Market cap ($ mn) 3,877.23 We rate Primo Brands Overweight. Our December 2027 price

Exchange rate 1.00 target of $29 is based on 8.1x EV/EBITDA off of CY28E

Free float (%) 66.5%

3M ADV (mn) 3.72 EBITDA of $1.739B, implying ~16% upside potential from

3M ADV ($ mn) 84.6 current levels, plus a ~2% dividend yield. Our 8.1x EV/EBITDA

Volatility (90 Day) 43 multiple is a roughly -27% discount vs. non-alcoholic beverage

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 11|2|0 peers CY27 EV/EBITDA. A narrower discount would be

warranted as visibility and confidence improves in business

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

trajectory.