Economic Insights: US: Monthly Inflation Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Economic Insights: US: Monthly Inflation Monitor

Global Markets Research

14 July 2026Economic Insights

Economics - Americas/North America

Research Analysts

US: Monthly Inflation Monitor North America Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• Core CPI inflation surprised to the downside, falling by 0.017% m-o-m in June aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

(Nomura: 0.215%, Consensus: 0.2%) from +0.208% in May, the first monthly decline +1 212 667 9347

since May 2020. Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

• Based on CPI data, we have lowered our core PCE inflation forecast for June by 10bp +1 212 667 9637

to 0.168% m-o-m from our pre-CPIestimate of 0.271%. This would be consistent with

Ruchir Sharma - NSI an annual rate of 2%.

ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

• Some weakness in supercore CPI inflation appears to have been amplified by +1 212 667 9186

temporary noise, but deceleration in services prices inflation is consistent with

moderating wage growth.

• CPI core goods inflation remained slightly negative. The impact from tariffs continued

to wane while the impact from AI boom on consumer electronics prices remained

limited.

• Moderating wage growth, residual seasonality, PCEannualrevisions, and the waning

impact from tariffs suggest that core PCE inflation will likely decelerate gradually in the

second half of this year. This supports our Fed call of no rate hikes indefinitely.

Fig. 1: Core CPI inflation surprised to the downside in June Fig. 2: Core services price inflation moderated sharply in June

Decomposition of m-o-m core CPI inflation Details of June CPI (m-o-m %, SA)

Actual

Nomura

June forecast

Headline -0.422 -0.203

Food 0.2 0.3

Food at home 0.2 0.3

Food away from home 0.2 0.3

Energy -5.7 -5.2

Gasoline -9.7 -10.0

Electricity -1.0 1.5

Core CPI -0.017 0.215