US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

14 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Consumerprices: Core CPI inflation surprised to the downside, falling by 0.017% m-o-m +1 212 667 9347

in June (Nomura: 0.215%, Consensus: 0.2%) from +0.208% in May, the first monthly Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

decline since May 2020 (Fig.1). jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637Based on CPI data, wehaveloweredourcorePCEinflationforecast for June by 10bp to

0.168% m-o-m from our pre-CPIestimate of 0.271% (Fig.2). This would be consistent Ruchir Sharma - NSI

with an annual rate of 2%. ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186

Some of the weakness in core CPI (e.g. motor vehicle insurance and medical care

services) does not feed into core PCE inflation calculations. In addition, some components

that have a higher weight in PCE than CPI (e.g., computer software and accessories,

sports equipment etc.) rebounded in the month. Furthermore, we expect a modest positive

contribution from PCE-relevant PPI data, which are scheduled for release tomorrow.

Although the softening in June appears to have been amplified by some one-off factors,

moderating wage growth, residual seasonality, PCEannualrevisions, and the waning

impact from tariffs suggest that core PCE inflation will likely decelerate gradually in the

second half of this year. This supports our Fed call of no rate hikes indefinitely.

Fedspeak: Chair Warsh’s remarks did not break new ground in terms of policy guidance.

He continued to emphasize the importance of price stability, but remained vague on how

the Fed should respond in practice to above-target inflation.