Gift Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

Gift Holdings

Global Markets Research

15 July 2026Gift Holdings

9279.T 9279 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN RETAILING

RatingWe expect profits to exceed company guidance

Remains Buythis fiscal year

Target price

Gross margin likely to continue improving in H2 due to changes in meat Increased from 5,200 JPY 5,500

procurement sources and higher capacity utilization at in-house plants

Closing price

We reiterate Buy rating; growth driven by increase in directly operated stores in 14 July 2026 JPY 4,670

Japan

We revise our earnings forecasts and target price for Gift Holdings in light of 26/10 Q2 Implied upside +17.8%

results. We forecast an adjusted EPS CAGR of 26% through 28/10 (over the 25/10

baseline) as we expect growth in store sales from the opening of directly operated stores

in Japan. After COVID-19 was reclassified as a Category 5 infectious disease during

23/10 and the negative impact of the pandemic had largely disappeared, the company’s Relative performance chart

adjusted P/E ranged from 21x to 38x through 25/10, while adjusted EPS grew at a 29%

CAGR over that period. We expect adjusted EPS growth to slow to 22% in 28/10 and 18%

in 29/10. We obtain our target price of ¥5,500 by multiplying our 27/10 adjusted EPS

forecast of ¥207.9 by a P/E of around 26.5x, a discount of around 10% to the roughly

29.5x midpoint of this historical range to reflect slower growth.

Our forecasts: We expect gross margin to remain at Q2 level in H2, see upside

versus profit guidance

The company raised its guidance when it announced H1 results, but we see room for the

gross margin to exceed the company's H2 plan and forecast 26/10 operating profits of

¥4.92bn, up 46% y-y and above guidance of ¥4.8bn. The gross margin in 26/10 Q2