US: June PPI data suggest a benign reading for core PCE inflation

Research evidence excerpt

US: June PPI data suggest a benign reading for core PCE inflation

Global Markets Research

15 July 2026First Insights

Economics - North America

Research AnalystsUS: June PPI data suggest a benign reading for

North America Economicscore PCE inflation

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

• PCE-relevant PPI data were mixed, and the net impact on our forecast for core PCE +1 212 667 9347

inflation was limited. We revised up our forecast only slightly to 0.175% m-o-m from Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

our pre-PPI estimate of 0.168%. Our forecast translates into y-o-y core PCE inflation jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

of 3.3% in June, down from 3.4% in May. +1 212 667 9637

Ruchir Sharma - NSI • PPI data suggest that prices for certain electronic components for US manufacturers

ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

leveled off in June, which helps ease concerns over AI-boom induced inflationary +1 212 667 9186

pressures on the margin.

• We continue to expect core PCE inflation to gradually moderate in H2 this year,

supporting our expectation for the Fed to remain on hold.

PPI data point to 0.2% m-o-m core PCE inflation in June

PCE-relevant PPI data were mixed, with financial service inflation softer than we had

expected, while healthcare and transportation service prices surprised to the upside.

Portfolio management and investment advice service prices came in weaker than

expected, while hospital services and domestic airline fares exceeded our expectations (

Fig.1). Other than those major components, PPI’s trust services, an input into PCE’s

trust, fiduciary, and custody activities, declined sharply in June.

Fig. 1: PCE-relevant PPI components were mixed relative to our expectation

PCE-relevant components of PPI data for June 2026, Not-seasonally adjusted basis, m-o-

m %

Nomura Core PCE

Actual