US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

15 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

PPI: PCE-relevant PPI data were mixed, and the net impact on our forecast for core PCE +1 212 667 9347

inflation was limited. We revisedupourforecast only slightly to 0.175% m-o-m from our Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

pre-PPI estimate of 0.168% (Fig.1). Our forecast translates into y-o-y core PCE inflation jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

of 3.3% in June, down from 3.4% in May (Fig.2). +1 212 667 9637

PPI data suggest that prices for certain electronic components for US manufacturers Ruchir Sharma - NSI

leveled off in June, which helps ease concerns over AI-boom induced inflationary ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186pressures on the margin.

We continue to expect core PCE inflation to gradually moderate in H2 this year, supporting

our expectation for the Fed to remain on hold.

BeigeBook: The July Beige Book upgraded its assessment of economic activity, with

eleven of twelve districts reporting slight to moderate growth (vs ten in May). Some

districts cited a boost from World Cup related tourism and activity. Consumer spending

edged higher, with fewer references to divergence between high- and low-income

households. Price increases remained widespread, but the pace was unchanged or

slower across all districts.

Labor market details were also positive. Five districts reported job gains, up from just one

in May, while the remaining seven saw little or no change. Hiring gains were broad-based,

and some districts noted stronger labor demand. Several districts highlighted shortages of

skilled workers. There were fewer mentions of AI-related layoffs, and contacts highlighted