Macau Gaming: Thoughts into 2Q: Another quarter to forget

Research evidence excerpt

Macau Gaming: Thoughts into 2Q: Another quarter to forget

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

Macau Gaming

Thoughts into 2Q: Another quarter to forget

Into the prints, we cut our EBITDA estimates by an average of ~5%, marking the Co-Head of Asia Pacific Consumer

third consecutive quarter of cuts, and the quality of the miss has worsened. Unlike Research and Head of Asia Gaming/

the last two quarters, where margin pressure was the sole culprit, 2Q26 saw GGR Leisure Research

itself miss on June weakness and unfavorable VIP luck, while OPEX/reinvestment DS Kim AC

likely crept higher. Net, we estimate industry EBITDA fell Y/Y for the first time (852) 2800-8597

since 1Q25 (vs. +11-12% in 1Q26), and while there were relative winners, this was ds.kim@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

more a case of “less bad” than real strength. We have limited visibility to Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

underwrite a cleaner 2H26E story (even after the World Cup), given the Selina Li

frustratingly poor macro and consumer sentiment in China. We thus remain (852) 2800-8530

selective on Macau gaming despite cheap valuation, with Galaxy (OW) as our only selina.c.li@jpmorgan.com

top pick. J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

• Uninspiring GGR print in 2Q — the explanations help, but do not change Lindsey Qian

the story. 2Q26 GGR was flat Y/Y after three quarters of double-digit growth (86 21) 6106 6269

lindsey.qian@jpmorgan.com

and fell -7% Q/Q (vs. normal seasonality of -3-4%), hitting its lowest level in J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited

four quarters. There were real distortions: the World Cup drag appears bigger