Daily Economic Briefing: China‘s weak quarter to prompt policy response

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: China‘s weak quarter to prompt policy response

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

15 July 2026

Daily Economic Briefing

China's weak quarter to prompt policy response

• China’s economy lost momentum in 2Q as real GDP growth slowed to 2.4%ar Economic and Policy Research

(4.3%oya). June IP provided a firmer end to the quarter, surprising to the upside Alex Gallin

with a 1.0%m/m gain as external-facing and high-tech sectors helped (1-212) 270-5492

production find a floor. Even so, factory output contracted over the quarter for alex.gallin@jpmorgan.com

the first time since 2023. While retail spending also firmed, other sources of JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

domestic demand were weak, with notable contractions in housing and non- Maia Crook

tech investment. (1-212) 622-8435

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

• This month’s Politburo meeting is likely to emphasize faster fiscal deployment JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

and we expect new policy support that lifts our 2H26 GDP forecast to 4.6%ar Nora Szentivanyi

(from 3.6%). The15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption, released (44-20) 7134-7544

on July 13 by the NDRC and Ministry of Commerce, targets retail sales of nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

around CNY 60trn by 2030, up from CNY 50.1trn in 2025, emphasizing J.P. Morgan Securities plc

services, digital, and green consumption. Housing policy is expected to support Joseph Lupton

housing-related consumption rather than a renewed property-led expansion. (1-212) 834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

Monetary easing can help at the margin, but without stronger credit demand, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

rate cuts would be more signal than stimulus. We have pushed our rate-cut

forecast from 3Q to 4Q.

China IP and real GDP

%3m/3m, saar %q/q, saar

12 IP 10

9 8

0 Real GDP 0