Peru: Early El Niño effects emerge as fisheries collapse

Research evidence excerpt

Peru: Early El Niño effects emerge as fisheries collapse

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

15 July 2026

Peru

Early El Niño effects emerge as fisheries collapse

After adjusting for seasonality and calendar effects, economic activity contracted Economic and Policy Research

1.1% m/m, sa, in May the weakest performance since March, and a reminder that Diego W. Pereira

the economy remains highly exposed to sector-specific shocks. The decline was (1-212) 834-4321

overwhelmingly concentrated in fishing and fishing-related manufacturing rather diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

than reflecting a generalized loss of momentum in domestic demand. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

The key drag came from the fishing sector, which collapsed 71.7% m/m sa

(73.1%oya), owing to the near-disappearance of anchovy catches destined for

fishmeal and fish oil production. Anchovy landings plunged 97.6%oya, reflecting

repeated suspensions of the fishing season aimed at protecting biomass amid

increasingly adverse oceanographic conditions.

Importantly, the fishing shock did not remain confined to the primary sector. It

propagated directly into manufacturing, which fell 7.8% m/m, sa. The primary

manufacturing segment contracted 41.7%oya, largely because the fish-processing

industry, particularly the production of fishmeal and fish oil, collapsed 80.9%oya

as plants faced a severe shortage of raw material. Fishing alone subtracted 0.5%-pt

from headline activity growth in May.

Manufacturing was the largest negative contributor to aggregate growth,

deducting 1.3%-pt from monthly headline activity growth. In other words, May’s

weakness was less about deteriorating domestic demand and more about the same

fisheries shock appearing twice in the GDP accounts: first through fishing itself