Risk Reward Update: Fastenal Co. | North America

Research evidence excerpt

Risk Reward Update: Fastenal Co. | North America

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Fastenal Co. (FAST.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Organic Growth (%) 8.7 13.5 10.0 8.5 06 Aug 2026 July 2026 Fastenal Co Corporate Sales Release

Operating Margin (%) 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.6 04 Sep 2026 August 2026 Fastenal Co Corporate Sales Release

14 Oct 2026 September 2026 Fastenal Co Corporate Sales Release

14 Oct 2026 Q3 2026 Fastenal Co Earnings Release

05 Nov 2026 October 2026 Fastenal Co Corporate Sales Release

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Growth in US manufacturing output. RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

FAST ability to drive MSD+ market outgrowth Ramping Onsite signings and pickup in US

behind share gains and Onsite signings industrial momentum allows FAST to generate Sales / 9,312

Industry price competition as price / cost is the MSD+ outgrowth (vs US IP + PPI) ahead of Revenue 8,775 9,445

top driver of distributor operating leverage market expectations. ($, mm) 9,198

given the highly variable opex base. Improving mix w/ Fastener recovery drives

further margin improvements in 2025-26

2,122

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 2,013 2,149

($, mm)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Heightened industry price competition w/ 2,081 0-10% China and India improved product availability and soft end

0-10% Europe ex UK demand.

0-10% India Gross margin pressure on potential tariff Net income 1,479

0-10% Japan headwinds ($, mm) 1,387 1,482

0-10% Latin America 1,438

0-10% MEA

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0-10% Mainland China 1.29

0-10% UK EPS Inst. Owners, % Active 41.8% 1.21 1.29

90-100% North America ($)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 1.25