Indonesia Telcos: 2Q26 earnings preview & model update post spectrum auction; reiterate OW ISAT

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Telcos: 2Q26 earnings preview & model update post spectrum auction; reiterate OW ISAT

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 July 2026

Indonesia Telcos

2Q26 earnings preview & model update post spectrum

auction; reiterate OW ISAT

Over the past 3M, ISAT (OW)/TLKM (N) have outperformed the JCI by 14%/7%, ASEAN TMT

ACmainly on the back of industry price repair and investors seeking resilient hideouts Ranjan Sharma, CFA

in Indo equities. Meanwhile, EXCL (UW) slightly underperformed the index on (65) 6882-1303

concerns around customer churn and levered BS amid a potential investment cycle. ranjan.x.sharma@jpmorgan.com

Heading into 2Q, we expect healthy yoy industry ARPU growth to continue despite J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

weaker seasonality. We recommend investors position on ISAT as we expect Steven Suntoso

another quarter of double-digit top-line/EBITDA yoy growth, with a special (622-1) 5291 8090

steven.suntoso@jpmorgan.com

dividend post FiberCo restructuring as upside optionality. We update our numbers PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

across the board to account for new spectrum costs, as well as ISAT’s fiber asset

Sigrid Qiu

spin off. Our conversations with companies confirmed that upfront fees for new (65) 6882-1454

spectrum are 1x annual fees. Our 2027E earnings for the telcos are reduced by ~3- sigrid.qiu@jpmorgan.com

9% as higher spectrum costs are partially offset by higher ARPU forecasts. We J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited

reiterate our OW on ISAT, and stay N/UW on TLKM/EXCL. Ankur Rudra, CFA

(65) 6801-3237

• ISAT. We expect ISAT to continue gaining wireless market share and deliver ankur.rudra@jpmorgan.com

another quarter of double-digit top-line/EBITDA yoy growth. We forecast J.P.