JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Quick Hits: The 2Q EPS ‘Bar‘ / No-Hike July / Teetering Technicals

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Quick Hits: The 2Q EPS ‘Bar‘ / No-Hike July / Teetering Technicals

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

15 July 2026

JPM | US MACRO THEMATICS - Quick Hits: The 2Q EPS ‘Bar’ /

No-Hike July / Teetering Technicals

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

Morning Quick Hits:

The earnings bar is elevated. Unlike prior seasons where consensus drifted lower pre-reporting, upward revisions into 2Q

make for a less clear reaction function for prints this season.

Back-to-back inflation undershoots cement a July Fed hold. CPI and PPI undershoots paired with Empire

Manufacturing’s disinflationary growth sweep (Prices Paid -8.7, New Orders +18.7) push the next live Fed meeting to

September. Oil, tariffs, and AI-driven structural inflation remain credible offsets that cap the conviction on a full dovish

pivot.

Semi’s sit at a binary technical juncture that carries index-level implications. SMH is hugging its 50dma while MU

threatens a breakdown, both of which could pressure the broader Tech Hardware complex at a time when the earnings

reaction function is already less forgiving.

The 2Q EPS Bar

Yesterday, I highlighted how this earnings season would be determined largely by expectations over fundamentals with the bar

materially higher than last quarter (here), JPM Equity Strategy put out a comprehensive preview of 2Q earnings which speaks to

this concept (here).

We expect topline growth, and positive operating leverage to result in resilient profit margins, boosting earnings delivery both in

2Q and through 2H. Specific to 2Q, earnings growth projections by consensus appear healthy in both the US and in