US: PPI moderates in June, though core PCE tracking up

Research evidence excerpt

US: PPI moderates in June, though core PCE tracking up

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

15 July 2026

US: PPI moderates in June,

though core PCE tracking up

The PPI moderated in June, as the headline fell 0.3%m/m on the back of falling Economic and Policy Research

energy prices. The core also rose 0.2% and the May core was revised from 0.4% Abiel Reinhart

to 0.1%,. Meanwhile, growth rates in core goods inputs to goods producers across (1-617) 712 9122

various stages of intermediate demand slowed. Still, the over-year-ago rate for core abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com

final demand PPI was a brisk 4.7%, down only slightly from a recent peak of 4.9% JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

in the prior two months. And while overall PPI services inflation was moderate, the

series that flow into our tracking of core PCE were slightly stronger than our

assumptions after yesterday’s CPI report. Thus we are raising our core PCE

tracking for June from 0.168%m/m to 0.202%, which would leave the over-year-

ago rate right between 3.3% and 3.4%, with a three-monthly annualized pace of

3.1%. In other words, while the CPI and PPI reports for June were reasonably

favorable, it is, to paraphrase Warsh yesterday, still not mission accomplished on

inflation.

In the details of the core, goods rose 0.2%m/m after having risen 0.7% in each of

the prior couple of months. Much of the recent acceleration in this category

reflected sales to government or for export, and those groups likewise led the

moderation in June. Core goods prices for private domestic sales also rose 0.2%,

continuing a pattern of chopping around in a fairly narrow range this year.

On services, transportation and warehousing of goods went flat after three big

increases that were likely linked to rising fuel costs.