My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nrob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 15 July 2026

My 2c on Financials

Rob O’Dwyer

+1 2126222673

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

Key Highlights

• Bank Earnings

• BLK flowing well

• PYPL bid

• PGR a cons short, hard to argue

Morning. Another frantic tape, but the same themes keep showing up: capital markets remain red hot, fee income is

carrying the banks, BLK reminded everyone why scale still matters, PYPL gets a lifeline bid, PGR growth is slowing, and

the macro data continues to soften around the edges. Earnings season is reinforcing a simple message: own businesses tied to

activity. Capital markets, asset gathering and servicing revenues are all thriving, while areas more dependent on loan demand or

consumer activity are seeing a much less exciting backdrop. The market keeps looking for cracks in the Wall Street story and, so

far, they're just not showing up.

Bank earnings: Wall Street still beating Main Street

The message from earnings is becoming increasingly clear: we're sitting in a sweet spot for capital markets activity. ECM, DCM

and trading remain exceptionally healthy, and banks with greater exposure to Wall Street are seeing the biggest benefit. MS was

another strong print. Every IBD line beat, equities remained a standout and wealth management may actually have been the

bigger story, with $148bn of NNA and a 30.5% pre-tax margin. The market continues to underestimate how powerful the

combination of wealth, alternatives and a recovering IPO cycle can be. The disclosure that roughly half of NNA is tied to IPO

activity underscores just how strong the funnel remains.