China: Loan weakness triggers year-end growth forecast cut: PBOC press conference and 2Q MPC takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

China: Loan weakness triggers year-end growth forecast cut: PBOC press conference and 2Q MPC takeaways

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research

15 July 2026

China: Loan weakness triggers

year-end growth forecast cut

PBOC press conference and 2Q MPC takeaways

Emerging Markets Asia, Economic

and Policy Research

Tingting Ge

(852) 2800-0143

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com

• New loans and TSF flows both missed expectations, mainly dragged by mid- Feng Zhu

to long-term loan demand from both households and corporates. (852) 2800 1745

feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com

• Loan growth slipped to 5.2%oya, a fresh record low; TSF softened to 7.4%. Jiayi Li

• PBOC shows greater tolerance for slower credit amid the shift away from (852)jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com2800-5229

property/infra and towards less credit-intensive sectors.

Tongfang Yuan

• We cut our year-end loan/TSF growth forecasts by 0.3%pt to 5.0%oya/7.1%. (852) 2800-0085

• 2Q MPC and press conference suggest no urgency for near-term easing and a tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch

gradual shift towards price-based monetary policy framework, prompting us

to push our low-conviction rate cut call from 3Q to 4Q.

Both new loan issuance and TSF flows undershot expectations in June. Weakness in

medium- and long-term lending to both households and corporates remained the key

drag, pushing loan growth to a fresh low of 5.2%oya. Non-loan financing also came

in weaker than expected, likely reflecting several large government bond issuances

conducted at month-end that may not have been fully captured until July. As a result,

TSF growth slowed by 0.3%pt to a record low of 7.4%.

New loan creation came in at 1610bn yuan (vs BBG consensus: 1950bn; JPMe:

1912bn), marking the weakest June reading since 2021.