JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

15 July 2026

Emerging Markets Corporate

Strategy

Yang-Myung Hong AC

(1-212) 834-4274

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

US HG issuance is running at an elevated $1.2tn YTD led by $220bn from

Alisa Meyers

hyperscalers and is forecast to reach close to $2tn in 2026, raising questions

(1-212) 834-9151

over technical overhang that could affect EM credit spreads. Our US HG alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

strategy team expects demand for hyperscaler and associated datacenter financings J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

should remain robust, albeit at a price that will continue to be very dynamic as Dhawal U Mehta

expectations for future funding needs and subsequent monetizations efforts (91-22) 6157 3779

become clearer. They estimate the widening impact of hyperscaler issuance on dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

JULI spread to be +3bp YTD, but the marketwide impact of hyperscaler spread J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

moves will continue to grow (link).

CEMBI BD IG spread has compressed against US HG and is now almost flat.

The typical range of the basis has been 10-20bp in recent years, but has narrowed

to 0-15bp this year. Part of the compression is due to the overall tighter spreads, but

the additional narrowing towards convergence is likely driven by the difference in

technicals with record supply in US HG compared to more modest levels of

issuance in EM corporates. As a result, our year-end spread forecast of 95bp for

CEMBI BD IG is flat to US HG, factoring in our view that the current dynamics

are likely to remain in place. Indeed, our US HG strategy team expects active

issuance from hyperscalers to continue over the next 5 years, whereas sources of