Agricultural Commodities Tracker: Potential El Niño impact on agricultural markets

Research evidence excerpt

Agricultural Commodities Tracker: Potential El Niño impact on agricultural markets

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

15 July 2026

Agricultural Commodities Tracker

Potential El Niño impact on agricultural markets

Sugar is the most exposed commodity Global Commodities Research

Natasha Kaneva

• NOAA’s1 latest ENSO2 Advisory highlights continuing El Niño conditions (1-212) 834-3175

and expects it to strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance of natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com

it persisting through early spring in 2027. NOAA also highlights a 81% chance JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

of a very strong El Niño during October-December, potentially the largest El Aradhaya Makkar

Niño event since 1950. Impacts from such weather events on agricultural aradhaya.makkar@jpmchase.com

markets stem from shifts in global rainfall patterns, which can affect planting J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

windows, crop development, and harvest quality, ultimately reshaping yield

expectations and export availability.

Figure 1: Agri commodity price movements

• Amongst major agricultural commodities, sugar is particularly exposed to El - active contract

Niño because its key supply regions—India, Thailand, and Centre-South %

Brazil (which together account for roughly 65% of global exports)—face 5.7%

weather risks simultaneously but through different channels. Corn, wheat and Euronext Wheat 5.1%13.2%

4.3% soy are also potentially affected, however the impact is more mixed. While El CBOTCBOTSoybeanWheatOil 42.9% 21.4%

Niño can reduce yields through droughts in Asia/Australia and excessive rain Minneapolis Wheat 3.9%10.1%

in parts of the Latin America, US yields could potentially benefit from cooler CBOT Kansas Wheat 3.9% 25.1%

and wetter late-summer conditions (Figure 2).