Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

13 July 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research AnalystsThoughts on Katayama's statements on GPIF investments

Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Foreign investors' views on Japanese markets (1): Equities naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-Katayama'sstatementsonGPIFmanagementcouldbeasignthattheTakaichi

administrationisbeginningtotakeseriousstepstocurbJPYdepreciationandsteepening

inthebondmarket.

-AdditionalinformationonGPIFmanagementisunlikelytoemergeinthenearterm.

-IfGovernorUeda'strueintentionistoexpandalternativeinvestments,themarketwould

likelybedisappointed.

-ThereactioninthebondmarketwasnotablylargerthanintheequitiesorFXmarkets,

suggestingthatKatayama’sremarksmayhaveservedasatriggerforshort-coveringin

bonds.

-ThestockmarkethasnotyetdigestedKatayama'scomments;ifaNISAcategorylimited

toJapaneseequitiesreallywasformed,itwouldbeapositivesurprise.

-ForeigninvestorsareseeminglyskepticalaboutthesustainabilityofJPYweaknessand

lookforopportunitiestoshiftintodomesticdemandstocksonsignsofJPYappreciation.

Today's Japanese market

In Japanese markets on Monday, this author expects upside to be limited for both bonds

and equities (in overnight futures trading, bonds and equities were up 31 sen and JPY550,

respectively, over OSE). In overseas markets last Friday, equities strengthened and bonds

weakened as investors priced in expectations for an economic recovery. The situation in

the Middle East resembled a stalemate, and crude oil prices were roughly flat. In US

equities, there was no clear thematic focus in buying and no consistent pattern in sector

leadership. Within tech, semiconductors and hyperscalers were firm while tech equipment

and software were weak.