Indonesia Auto: Less than meets the eye Quick Note

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Auto: Less than meets the eye Quick Note

Nomura Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd

13 July 2026Indonesia Auto

EQUITY: AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

Less than meets the eye Research Analysts

Indonesia Research Team

Ahmad Maghfur Usman - NSMQuick Note ahmad.maghfurusman@nomura.com

+603 2027 6892June 2026 four-wheeler (4W) sales data points to an extended industry recovery, but the

quality of the recovery appears narrow. 4W wholesales reached 78k units in June (+33% Onshore expert

y-y) and retail sales rose to 75k units (+20% y-y), taking 6M26 wholesales to 437k (+16%

y-y) and retail sales to 434k (+10% y-y). Yet, roughly 47% of the 60k y-y increase in 1H26 Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

wholesales came from just two commercial models – the Suzuki Carry and the Daihatsu David Tjahjadi

Gran Max – which together recorded an 87% y-y jump in sales to 61k units. Excluding (david.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

them, the rest of the market grew only 9.1% y-y – still 18% below 6M23 levels. We read

the recovery as still leaning on fleet and commercial demand rather than a broad-based lift Gerald Hugo (gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)

in passenger-car purchasing power, with Astra continuing to cede share to Chinese entrants. Theonshoreexperts,whoare

Two commercial models drove close to half of the gain employedbyPTVerdhanaSekuritas

The composition matters more than the headline. At 437k, 6M26 wholesales were the Indonesia(“Verdhana”)andarenot

highest 1H print since 6M23 and ran ahead of retail sales. But the Suzuki (7269 JP, NR) licensedoutsideIndonesia,have

Carry and Daihatsu (6023 JP, Not rated) Gran Max – both commercial vehicles – contributedtothecontentofthis

accounted for close to half of the entire y-y volume lift, and their combined 61k units (from reportunderapartnershipagreement