G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 15 July 2026

EUR Inflation headline readings were all negative but the degree of surprise was a little less cool in

the PCE estimates and while Trump rowed back the SoH passage charge plan, the attacks

continue to keep the market nervous that their underlying TACO belief may need to be revisited.

I guess the next stage is civilian infrastructure (bridges power etc) so this needs to be watched,

otherwise we roll into the next PCE contributor this afternoon, PPI. Pretty disappointing price

GBP action on the face of it given Warsh continues to point to the data being in charge but the fact of

the matter is the fog of war is back and markets will stay uneasy. Paid some spreads in the USD

yesterday along with everyone else I am sure but refraining from going outright short USD still

given the environment, preference for carry has been increased at the margin.

Interesting update from the Burnham camp overnight as the Times reports there has been

significant pushback on Red Ed as Chancellor. His odds have plummeted on Polymarket (down

from 70% to 20%) while Cooper and Mahmood have overtaken. I am sure many will be painting

this as good news but what I would say is that the market had become comfortable with

Miliband and Cooper is still associated with being quite expansionary (especially on the defense

angle) – gilts have not done very much at the open. I still think GBP has done too much but I

guess the risk reward is less negative with this development, keeping some cross length but will

not be making a project out of it. SHF and RM continue their buy trends (14 streak and 6 in 7)