JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

13 July 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research AnalystsUSD/JPY has been volatile amid expectations over

Global FX Strategythe GPIF

Yujiro Goto - NSC

Watch tomorrow’s post-Cabinet press conferences yujiro.goto@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• Market expectations for a shift in the GPIF’s asset-allocation will likely ease, as yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

Finance Minister Katayama’s remarks were reportedly intended to stem the rise in +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

yields, rather than signal a portfolio change, and officials were surprised by the

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC strength of the market’s reaction (Source: Reuters). tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

• The hurdle for increasing domestic bond allocation remains high. Although the GPIF +81 3 6703 1427

could increase its JGB holdings within the permitted deviation range, any such move Yuki Kodera - NSC

would require a convincing rationale owing to its role in managing public pension yuki.kodera@nomura.com

reserves. +81 3 6703 1281

• That said, the GPIF may gradually increase its allocation of alternative assets,

according to Nikkei’s report. And markets could still react by JPY buying, if tomorrow’s

post-Cabinet remarks do not rule out the possibility of a portfolio review.

Fig. 1: Portfolio allocation of the GPIF (actual and target) Fig. 2: Alternative assets in the GPIF portfolio as of the end of

March 2026

Source: Nomura, GPIF Source: Nomura, GPIF

Expectations for a shift in the GPIF asset-allocation should subside

We believe that expectations for a significant increase in the GPIF’s allocations of

domestic bonds and domestic equities should subside (Fig.1). Reuters reported on 13