China Ecommerce: Jun-26 online sales: Headline retail growth turns positive; online physical goods extend recovery

Research evidence excerpt

China Ecommerce: Jun-26 online sales: Headline retail growth turns positive; online physical goods extend recovery

Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

China Ecommerce

Jun-26 online sales: Headline retail growth turns

positive; online physical goods extend recovery

• Key takeaways from the June print. First, headline total retail growth rate Head of China Equity Research

turned positive but remained weak. Overall retail sales grew 1.0% yoy in June and Co-Head of Asia TMT

(vs -0.6% in May), with 2Q26 growth at 0.2% yoy, vs 2.4% yoy in 1Q, Research

according to the NBS. Second, online extended its recovery. Online physical Alex Yao AC

goods GMV grew 3.9% yoy in June, the second consecutive month of (86 21) 6106 6505

acceleration from the 0.2% April trough and 2.6% in May. Nevertheless, total alex.yao@jpmorgan.com

SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001

online GMV growth decelerated to 2% yoy in June, dragged by weak service

Nancy Liu

GMV growth at -1.5% yoy. Online physical goods GMV in 2Q26 increased by

(86 21) 6106 6343

2.3% yoy, though still slower than 7.5% in 1Q26. Online penetration of nancy.liu@jpmorgan.com

physical goods sales reached ~25.9% in 1H26, up ~1.0ppt yoy. SAC Registration Number: S1730524090001

J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

Limited• JPM view. We read the June print more as consumption finding a floor, instead

of an inflection. Headline retail growth rate returned to positive trajectory and

sequential momentum turned up for the first time since March, but at ~1% yoy

growth the total consumption beta remains weak. Within this, online continues

to outgrow offline, as online goods GMV growth rate has accelerated for two

consecutive months (0.2% in April, 2.6% in May, ~3.9% in June per JPMe),