2Q26F preview: resilient earnings: JD Retail revenue likely to be weak, yet better than feared; maintain Buy

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26F preview: resilient earnings: JD Retail revenue likely to be weak, yet better than feared; maintain Buy

Global Markets Research

JD.com JD.OQ JD US 13 July 2026

EQUITY: MEDIA & INTERNET

Rating2Q26F preview: resilient earnings Remains Buy

Target priceJD Retail revenue likely to be weak, yet better than Remains USD 41.00

feared; maintain Buy

Closing price USD 28.20 10 July 2026Expect 2Q26F results to surpass market expectations; maintain Buy

2Q26 was a challenging period for the China e-commerce industry, but we expect JD Implied upside +45.4%Retail (JDR) to report a 5.5% y-y decline in revenue, better than market expectation for a

7.5% decline. JDR's operating profit margin (OPM) likely remained largely stable y-y at Market Cap (USD mn) 35,200.9

4.5% despite the weak top line. As a result, we estimate JDR's operating profit (OP) ADT (USD mn) 274.3

retreated 5% y-y to CNY13.2bn, 3% above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of

CNY12.8bn.

Relative performance chartWe estimate losses from new businesses amounted to CNY9.05bn. Within this, JD's

quick commerce (QC) likely incurred a loss of nearly CNY6.0bn, narrowing significantly

both q-q and y-y from the CNY7.9bn loss in 1Q26 and the CNY13.5bn loss a year ago.

We expect that JD's other new initiatives, primarily JX and JoyBuy, to report a combined

loss of CNY3.1bn, compared to a loss of CNY2.5bn in the prior quarter.

On a consolidated basis, we estimate JD Group's revenue dropped 3% y-y to CNY346bn,

2% above the latest Bloomberg consensus. Meanwhile, consolidated non-GAAP net profit

may have grown 14% y-y to CNY8.5bn, beating the latest market consensus by 11%.

Electronic goods (EG) slowing; general merchandise (GM) resilient

We anticipate diverging performances between JD's two key categories. The EG category