SQM (SQM): Deep Dive on Salar Futuro Project: Required For Operational Continuity, But Limited Equity Upside

Research evidence excerpt

SQM (SQM): Deep Dive on Salar Futuro Project: Required For Operational Continuity, But Limited Equity Upside

Goldman Sachs SQM (SQM)

Salar Futuro at a glance: project summary

Salar Futuro is a $3B lithium capital project (15% market cap, of which SQM should

contribute with half of it) by Novandino Litio SpA (SQM-Codelco JV) in the Salar de

Atacama, Chile. Salar Futuro is a relevant modification to the existing operation that

supports lithium production until 2060 thought higher recoveries (DLE technology) while

modernizing infrastructure and reducing environmental constraints (eg, water usage).

The project includes restructuring the processing model through the integration of

Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE1) with other technologies (nanofiltration, mechanical

evaporation, and reverse osmosis) in a hybrid system - combining existing solar

evaporation ponds with DLE Adsorption (AD) flowsheet, similar to what Eramet

Centenario-(Ratones, Argentina), Livent/Arcadium (Fénix, Argentina), and SunResin

(multiple Chinese and Argentine deployments) have implemented.

The construction period spans 7 years (2H29-2H36) but the 2-yr DLE plant construction

is expected to be concluded in 2034. First production could commence in 2031 (brine

extraction), but enriched-DLE lithium production could commence by 2035 (Exhibit 4).

Operationally, brine extraction will be capped at maximum of 822 L/s (consistent with

prior regulatory commitments), but the project allows for higher recovery efficiency

(DLE technology delivers c. >80% lithium recovery vs 40-50% for traditional pond

evaporation) — which reduces brine intensity per tonne of LCE produced. While the

recently submitted license is for 470kt-LCE capacity (vs ~300kt by 2030E without the