US Daily Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Commentary

Global Markets Research

13 July 2026US Daily Commentary

Economics - North America

Research Analysts

Review & Preview North America Economics

Review Aichi Amemiya - NSI aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

Fedspeak: Governor Waller struck a hawkish tone in his prepared remarks, arguing that +1 212 667 9347

inflation and monetary policy are at a "crossroads." He described the labor market as Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

stable and employment as close to the FOMC’s maximum employment goal, while noting jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

that core PCE inflation has moved steadily higher. +1 212 667 9637

Waller said there is a plausible scenario in which inflation moves back toward 2%, but an Ruchir Sharma - NSI

"equally plausible" one in which it remains elevated or rises further, requiring tighter policy ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9186in the near term. He emphasized that June CPI and PPI are among several key releases

he will monitor. He said, if June core PCE inflation is another “hot” print, the Committee

would need to consider tightening monetary policy “in the near term,” raising the risk of a

July rate hike.

That said, Waller made a similar point to NY Fed President Williams, suggesting that he

will not advocate for a “credibility” hike. Specifically, Waller said that his decision will be

based on the incoming data rather than trying to send a "symbolic" message to markets.

Pushing back against the argument from dovish policymakers like Gov Bowman, Waller

argued that inflation pressures have been broad-based rather than concentrated in a few

categories, with both core goods and core services running above historical rates

consistent with 2% inflation. He also pushed back against relying on alternative inflation