Korea: Government lifts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.0%

Research evidence excerpt

Korea: Government lifts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.0%

Nomura | Asia Insights 14 July 2026

Fig. 1: Government forecasts

2026 forecast (January) Revised 2026 forecasts (July) 2027

Real GDP growth 2.0 3.0 2.2

Nominal GDP growth 4.9 12.3 4.6

Employment (person) 160,000 150,000 170,000

CPI inflation 2.1 2.6 2.2

Current account (USD bn) 135 290 245

Customs exports 4.2 40 1.0

Customs imports 2.0 20 3.0

Note: % y-o-y unless stated otherwise.

Source: MOFE, Nomura Global Economics

Fig. 2: Economic policy package for H2 2026

Policy area Main measures Major targets and timetable

Maintain an active fiscal stance; establish a Future

Response Fund using additional semiconductor-

Public-institution investment increased to

related tax revenue; expand public-institution

KRW72tn; policy finance to KRW638.4tn;

Macroeconomic stability investment and policy finance; operate an

construction starts for 12,000 third-new-town

integrated monitoring framework covering FX,

homes in H2

financial and property markets; stabilise food and

energy prices

Establish a four-stage response covering domestic

production, strategic reserves, overseas

production and import diversification; introduce a Renewable capacity of 100GW by 2030;

Supply-chain and energy security domestic-production tax credit; provide low- KRW790tn of climate policy finance over 2026–35;

interest loans for alternative imports; expand oil K-GX strategy in Q3

and critical-mineral reserves; promote K-GX and

SMR technologies

Accelerate the semiconductor, AI-data-centre and

physical-AI megaprojects; develop post-HBM

memory, AI chips, NPUs, power semiconductors Select new ultra-innovation projects in H2;

Growth engines

and defence chips; support seven physical-AI defence-semiconductor strategy in Q3