Global Economic Outlook Monthly

Research evidence excerpt

Global Economic Outlook Monthly

Global Markets Research

14 July 2026Global Economic Outlook Monthly

Economics - Global

Research Analysts

A resilient world economy but risks remain Global Economics

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

We maintain a broadly positive outlook for the second half of the year, but aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

we are cognizant of the large number of risks building. +1 212 667 9347

George Buckley - NIplc

george.buckley@nomura.com Supported by the AI transformation and agile government policies, the world economy was

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resilient in H1 to the energy price shock, rising inflation and bond yields. The reopening of

the SoH supports our positive economic outlook in H2 but we see several risks, including Ting Lu - NIHK

ting.lu@nomura.com the fragility of the US-Iran MOU, El Niño, an AI setback, fiscal fragility and how markets

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react to central banks dialing back forward guidance. In the US, we expect continued solid

growth, elevated inflation and the Fed to remain on hold. In Europe, softer data have led us Kyohei Morita - NSC

to pencil out rate hikes, though a resurgence in energy prices remains a risk to this view: we kyohei.morita@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1395 now expect only one more ECB hike in September and no more BOE hikes. We warn

against painting Asia with one brush. China faces two K-shapes that could reinforce each Euben Paracuelles - NSL

other, while the nexus of Japan’s monetary and fiscal policies will come into sharper focus. euben.paracuelles@nomura.com

+65 6433 6956 Taiwan and Korea are benefiting most from the chip super cycle, though spillovers to the

broader economy will take time and financial stability risks are on the rise. Our outlook for Rob Subbaraman - NSL