JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

14 July 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

A big “unknown” Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

The MOF may wait for positions to become cleaner to maximize its yujiro.goto@nomura.com

intervention efficacy. +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• GPIF's domestic bond allocation is unlikely to change soon, in our view, given today’s yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

ministerial comments. Also, the GPIF’s recent robust investment verifications will +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

make it difficult to justify changing the basic portfolio imminently.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

• However, if the government's growth strategy improves market conditions, GPIF would tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

have a rationale to increase JGB holdings. The substantial “unknown” bid in today's +81 3 6703 1427

20yr JGB auction shows the market remains aware of GPIF's potential involvement. Yuki Kodera - NSC

yuki.kodera@nomura.com • USD/JPY has recently moved less than price action in JGBs, possibly because net

+81 3 6703 1281

short USD/JPY positions held by retail investors are quite stretched. These positions

may need to be unwound further before the MOF’s intervention, from MOF’s

intervention efficacy standpoint.

Fig. 1: GPIF's investment returns of the past 10 years Fig. 2: USD/JPY and "Mrs. Watanabe's" margin trade positions

at OTC

Note: OTC position for Japanese retail FX investors.

Note: Dotted lines represent past 10 year's annual return. Source: Macrobond, Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ), Nomura

Source: GPIF, Nomura

Comments on the GPIF from two ministers today did not suggest an imminent

change in the fund’s basic portfolio

Markets continue to expect a potential increase in GPIF’s JGB buying. At the press