Sumitomo Metal Mining

Research evidence excerpt

Sumitomo Metal Mining

Global Markets Research

14 July 2026Sumitomo Metal Mining

5713.T 5713 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN STEEL, NONFERROUS METALS, WIRE & CABLE

RatingFactoring in recent rise in metal prices and copper

Remains Neutralpremium

Target price

Copper prices are solid, and gold prices stopped falling as rate hike Increased from 3,400 JPY 8,550

expectations faded, but this appears to have been priced in

Closing price JPY 7,156Still Neutral, we factor in recent metal prices but think they have already been priced in 13 July 2026

We raise our earnings forecasts for Sumitomo Metal Mining, having revised our metal price and

Implied upside +19.5%forex assumptions, but retain our Neutral rating as we think the rises in metal prices since end-2025

have already been priced in. We change our target price calculation method from DCF to P/E and

use a base year of 28/3, when we expect full-year contributions from current metal prices and forex

rates, as we expect overseas copper and gold mine earnings to be included in Jan–Dec. We obtain

Relative performance chartour target price of ¥8,550 by multiplying our 28/3 EPS forecast by a P/E of around 11x, given that

the company has traded at a roughly 30–40% discount to the Russell/Nomura Large Cap (ex

financials) average over the past 10 years owing to its substantial earnings volatility stemming from

fluctuations in metal prices and forex rates (see page 4 for details). We think the stock could attract

higher valuations if: (1) it starts to look more likely that the company will make final investment

decisions, including on the Winu copper and gold mines and the Kalgoorlie nickel project, or on

expansion of the Côté gold mine; and (2) productivity were to improve for battery materials.