QPS Holdings: Medium-term plan factors in overseas sales growth

Research evidence excerpt

QPS Holdings: Medium-term plan factors in overseas sales growth

Global Markets Research

15 July 2026QPS Holdings

464A.T 464A JP / EQUITY: JAPAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS

RatingMedium-term plan factors in overseas sales

Remains Buygrowth

Target price

Plan through 31/5 reflects growth in number of SAR satellites in Reduced from 3,729 JPY 3,521

operation, next-generation satellite technologies, overseas sales growth

Closing price JPY 1,844We reiterate Buy rating, take positive view of medium-term business plan 14 July 2026

The company released its medium-term business plan running through 31/5, which calls

Implied upside +90.9%for at least 36 SAR satellites to be in operation at end-31/5 (versus 36 previously) and

annual satellite production capacity of 20 (versus up to 10), in an indication of its plans for

proactive business growth. The company's 31/5 targets are sales of ¥30.0bn (government

agency: ¥17.0bn; overseas/private sector: ¥13.0bn, the majority of which is overseas),

Relative performance chartcompany-defined EBITDA of ¥20.0bn, and operating profits of ¥3.0bn. Public-sector sales

guidance only includes Ministry of Defense PFI figures and strikes us as cautious, but the

company's overseas sales target is ambitious. We lower our adjusted EBITDA forecasts in

light of the medium-term business plan, but we take a positive view of the medium-term

plan as the company has clarified its business expansion policy. We obtain our target

price of ¥3,521 using an adjusted EV/EBITDA of 7.5x (previously 7.5x) on 32/5 forecasts.

We focus on moves to tap overseas markets and the MOD's next Defense Buildup

Program

We forecast 45 SAR satellites in operation at end-32/5, and expect overseas sales to rise

to ¥14.0bn (previously ¥11.0bn) in 32/5 based on the increase in satellite imaging