Mexican Bottlers: 2Q26 Preview: Weather and World Cup Provide Limited Uplift Amid Soft Demand

Research evidence excerpt

Mexican Bottlers: 2Q26 Preview: Weather and World Cup Provide Limited Uplift Amid Soft Demand

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

14 July 2026

Mexican Bottlers

2Q26 Preview: Weather and World Cup Provide Limited

Uplift Amid Soft Demand

The 2Q26 setup for Mexican bottlers reinforces weaker-than-expected underlying LatAm Food & Beverages and

demand in Mexico, with weather still not cleanly normalized and June’s World Cup Agribusiness

uplift proving incremental rather than a true offset. Against that backdrop, the near- Lucas Ferreira AC

term quarter setup is differentiated: KOF looks cleaner in 2Q given a more (55-11) 4950-3629

supportive consolidated mix (with South America—particularly Brazil/Colombia lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.com

—helping offset Mexico softness), while AC* remains more mixed as Mexico and Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

the U.S. continue to weigh despite South America as a positive contributor. We are Froylan Mendez

~2–3% below consensus on 2Q26E EBITDA for both companies and, at the FY26 (52-55) 5540-9482

froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

level, we sit ~flat-to-slightly below consensus for AC* while remaining ~2% J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

below for KOF on revenue/EBITDA. Importantly, we continue to see an Morgan Grupo Financiero

asymmetric upside skew if weather normalizes (here) more cleanly, as base repair Larissa Perez

could drive meaningful reported volume surprises even under a sluggish consumer (55-11) 4950-6400

backdrop—particularly if the Coca-Cola system’s market share gains are larissa.perez@jpmchase.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

sustained. In our view, the cleaner near-term setup at KOF has driven the stronger

relative performance vs AC month to date, leaving both names on broadly similar

forward multiples.