Weg 2Q Results: Not a Great Quarter; Potentially an Entry Point for Those Looking Into 2027 Re-Rate

Research evidence excerpt

Weg 2Q Results: Not a Great Quarter; Potentially an Entry Point for Those Looking Into 2027 Re-Rate

kely on the back of a broader risk-off rotation. ABBN SW 23.7x 21.3x 31.8x 30.7x

SU FP 18.0x 15.9x 27.6x 23.6x

• How to be positioned for 2Q? All in, we would use a soft 2Q earnings print RRX US 13.3x 11.6x 19.9x 15.7x

- defined as a top-line miss of up to 5% vs JPMe with EBITDA margin above 6594 JT 11.4x 8.9x 23.2x 16.2x

21% - as an opportunity to add positions. Under this scenario, we believe the

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

stock could underperform IBOV by 2-3pp on July 22nd. However, if EBITDA

margins come in below 21.0% we could see an additional downside of ~5% to

our EBITDA estimates. Catalyst Watch is our near-term conviction

• 2Q Results Brings Limited Room for Positive Surprises. 2Q top-line print indicator for our equity coverage universe.

should be soft (R$10.36bn, +1% yoy), while the current BRL level adds further It is an indicator our research analysts can

downside risk to our estimates (more details below). On the mix, we expect apply to a stock in their coverage into a

domestic GTD revenues to decline ~20% yoy amid weakness in the wind and specific event in order to articulate near-

solar segments. On the positive side, foreign revenues growth in US$ should term positivity or caution based on a

be ~15% yoy but unlikely to fully offset that pressure on domestic revenues. specific catalyst. As such, it can differ from

In 1Q, foreign revenues were +16% yoy yet the stock fell ~7% vs IBOV -3% the analysts' published ratings, which are

on the day. More broadly, over the past 8 quarters, WEG shares have declined relative to their coverage universe and six

in 6 instances even when results were in line with consensus.