Daily Economic Briefing: Cool, cool summer

Research evidence excerpt

Daily Economic Briefing: Cool, cool summer

Maia Crook Global Economic Research J P M O R G A N(1-212) 622-8435 14 July 2026

maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

exports like low-end consumer goods and autos. Imports also rose for a seventh

consecutive month, though the sectoral breakdown suggests this increase was driven by

production and supply-chain needs rather than a broad recovery in final demand. While

trade strength should cushion ongoing domestic headwinds, we maintain that a durable

recovery still requires faster fiscal execution and stronger demand-side policy support.

China goods sector indicators

%3m/3m, saar; mfg output incl. June fcst

75 Nominal exports Mfg output 20

50 15

25 10

0 5

-25 0

-50 -5

15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: China Customs, NBS, J.P. Morgan

• The recent slowdown in China’s manufacturing output contrasts with still-boomy prints

out of tech-heavy Asia. In Singapore’s 2Q GDP report showed a 23%ar rebound in

manufacturing output helped promote a 4.6%ar rise in real GDP despite a moderation in

services. Some of the quarterly moves reflect noise between 1Q and 2Q, but looking

through the volatility the 1H26 performance is in line with our view that tech

manufacturing, trade-related services, and public and private capex will underpin solid

growth this year. We look for quarterly GDP gains to decelerate to 1%ar in the second half

of the year, but maintain our above-consensus forecast of 4.6%oya for 2026 as a whole.

• India’s June exports have also looked constructive: non-oil exports rose 2%m/m in June

in a third consecutive monthly increase. These data are volatile, but a 3-month moving

average of %oya growth points to a sharp improvement: 12.4% in June versus -1.5% in

March. Despite the export gain, the June trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $30.4bn.