AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 15 July 2026

Top Stories

Genesis Minerals (Jonathon Sharp) (GMD AU, OW)

First Read: GMD/VAU Merger Now Binding on Unchanged Terms

Key takeaways from the signed GMD/VAU scheme: 1) Deal now binding with unanimous Board recommendation;

consideration unchanged (A$5.274/sh) and implementation targeted for Nov26. 2) KOTH synergies better quantified -

~2.0Mtpa Tower Hill ore at 2.0g/t displacing 0.3g/t low-grade feed adds ~100koz pa at flat throughput, lifting KOTH to +300koz

pa and Leonora to ~500koz pa by FY29 (subject to approvals); ~A$2.0bn synergies reaffirmed. 3) In our view, we see this as a

positive incremental update with the presentation better quantifying the production upside from routing Tower Hill to KOTH. We

note the FY27/28 production figure outlined doesn’t include the upside from KOTH synergies.

Australian NAB survey: Further improvement (Tom Ryan)

Australia's NAB business confidence improved further in June, rising 9pts to -5. Confidence has now climbed for three

consecutive months, continuing to recover from the sharp March drop driven by energy supply and cost concerns. Those

concerns had eased somewhat by June following the interim peace deal signed mid-month. While the trend is encouraging, the

measure has yet to fully normalise to its pre-war level, and further upside appears more limited given the recent re-escalation in

US–Iran tensions.

Spot Scenarios (Lyndon Fagan)

Lithium/copper CY27 MtM EBITDA upgrades narrow; gold still MtM downgrades

Key takeaways: 1) Platts spodumene has pulled back to ~$2,165/t; however, lithium names still lead the coverage in CY27

MtM EBITDA upgrades – PLS/IGO/MIN/LTR at 34%/29%/24%/7%. respectively. 2) Copper at ~$6.10/lb sees SFR/CSC screen