Tami’s Trash Talk: Headline CPI Decelerated YoY; OCC Prices Up 11% YoY

Research evidence excerpt

Tami’s Trash Talk: Headline CPI Decelerated YoY; OCC Prices Up 11% YoY

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

14 July 2026

Tami’s Trash Talk

Headline CPI Decelerated YoY; OCC Prices Up 11%

YoY

This monthly publication tracks key CPI metrics and commodity prices related to Machinery, Engineering &

our waste services coverage, including domestic and export OCC prices (national Construction

and regional), recycled plastic prices, including PET, natural HDPE, and colored Tami Zakaria, CFA AC

HDPE, D3 RIN prices, natural gas prices and sorted office paper prices. Note that (1-212) 622-9888

landfill-derived RNG qualifies as a cellulosic biofuel under the RFS, generating tami.zakaria@jpmchase.com

D3 RINs that are primarily sold to obligated refiners/importers needing Alec R McGuire

compliance credits. The front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures contract (1-212) 622-2432

(contract size of 10,000 MMBtu) serves as the baseline commodity value for RNG. alec.mcguire@jpmorgan.com

Sorted office paper is a read-across for WM’s Secure Information Destruction Raquel Betesh

(1-212) 622-1313

(SID) business, which provides secure document, hard drive, and media raquel.betesh@jpmchase.com

destruction, representing ~33% of Stericycle and ~LTMSD% of enterprise J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

revenues. As a reminder, the sensitivity of OCC/recyclable commodity price

changes to our waste coverage varies by company. On an annualized basis, a $10

per ton change in the blended average single-stream commodity price leads to an

EBITDA impact of ~$25MM and ~$11MM for WM and RSG, respectively. For

WCN, management has commented in the past that a 10% change in the value of

the basket of recycled commodities is ‘=> $20-25MM’ of annual revenue impact

with high flow-through.