Winbond: DDR4 & DDR3 pricing stronger than expected; AI server NOR shipments on the ramp; 2027E NT$60 EPS power; OW

Research evidence excerpt

Winbond: DDR4 & DDR3 pricing stronger than expected; AI server NOR shipments on the ramp; 2027E NT$60 EPS power; OW

gin - 26E 52.7% 54.2% 1.5pp

vendors are likely to keep the DDR4 bit-shipment mix at very low levels. While EBIT margin - 27E 60.6% 64.3% 3.7pp

the supply-driven upside is broadly understood by the market, our investor

interactions over the past month suggest an important demand driver is not well Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

appreciated. As noted in our prior note, 1TB eSSD typically requires ~1GB of Adj. EPS (NT$)

DRAM cache, for which spec is mostly DDR4 8Gb. Our global memory team 2025A 2026E 2027E

estimates the eSSD market at >515EB in 2026, 840EB in 2027, and >1,190EB Q1 (0.24) 2.25A 12.81

Q2 (0.29) 5.21 13.48

in 2028. We therefore believe eSSDs alone imply a potential DRAM demand Q3 0.65 9.23 16.37

TAM of >500mnGB, >800mnGB, and >1,100mnGB in those respective years Q4 0.76 11.81 17.37

- consuming up to 50% of niche DRAM makers’ output. This robust demand FY 0.88 28.49 60.03

could drive tightness/shortages in niche DRAM and a stronger-than-expected Style Exposure

pricing momentum. For example, we forecast 2027 total DRAM bit shipments

for Nanya Tech (covered by Jay Kwon) and Winbond at ~800mnGB and

~420mnGB, respectively. In addition to DDR4, LPDDR also consume their

capacity in a meaningful way. Notably, we believe consumer applications also

took these very high DDR3 and DDR4 prices in 3Q26. On the supply side,

Winbond is on track to ramp up its Kaohsiung Fab and maintains its target to

wafer-in 25kwpm in late 2026 or early 2027 (with the mix of 16nm 2/3 and

20nm 1/3), vs a meaningful step-up vs ~15kwpm wafer-out in 3Q26.

• Ramping up NOR flash shipments to AI. We expect Winbond to upgrade its