Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: Brent positioning turns net short

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Market Positioning & Flows: Brent positioning turns net short

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA AC Global Markets Strategy

(44-20) 3493-8246 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

otar.dgebuadze@jpmorgan.com

increased by 5% over the week to $180 billion (10 Jul, Figure 13Theestimatedvalueofopeninterestinnaturalgasmarketsincreasedby5%WoW). This was driven by an

increase in prices across European and Asian benchmarks, further supported by net

contract-based inflows of $4 billion. The resilient JKM premium keeps pulling cargoes to

Asia, while Europe’s storage path continues to deteriorate. NWE storage is 40% full, the

lowest for this time of year since 2013, and paced Qatari restarts, slowing ex-Middle East

supply growth, low Golden Pass utilization and resilient Asian demand leave Europe in a

difficult position ahead of winter. Taken together, this points to structurally tight 3Q

balances or significant 4Q and winter risks.

• The estimated value of open interest in precious metals markets increased by 1% WoW

($2.3 billion) to $252 billion, rising for a second consecutive week (10 Jul, Figure 8Theestimatedvalueofopeninterestacrospreciousmetalsincreasedby1%WoW).

Across all trader types, the sector saw strong net contract-based inflows totalling $4 billion

WoW, primarily into gold ($4.4 billion WoW), though this was partially offset by outflows

from silver (-$0.5 billion WoW). Meanwhile, net Managed Money positioning in COMEX

Gold futures decreased by 3.9k contracts to a total of 116k contracts net long. Central banks

have returned as net marginal buyers of gold since April, though buying has narrowed in

breadth somewhat. We do not think the long-term, structural motivations for increased EM

central bank diversification into gold have changed and overall still see a good amount of