YAMADA HOLDINGS (9831): Revising our earnings estimates to account for air conditioner demand

Research evidence excerpt

YAMADA HOLDINGS (9831): Revising our earnings estimates to account for air conditioner demand

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

14 July 2026

YAMADA HOLDINGS (9831) Neutral

9831.T, 9831 JP

Revising our earnings estimates to account for air Price (14 Jul 26):¥679

conditioner demand ▲Price Target (Dec-27):¥620 Prior (Dec-26):¥520

We revise our earnings estimates up sharply for FY2026, but expect a reactionary

pullback in FY2027 to result in a modest sales decline and an operating profit Japan Equity Research

decline. We raise our price target to ¥620, but maintain our Neutral rating. We will Retail

watch for synergies from business integration with Edion over the longer term. AC Dairo Murata

• Revising earnings estimates: We revise our earnings estimates in light of 4Q (81-3)dairo.murata@jpmorgan.com6736 8620

FY2025 results, FY2026 guidance, 1Q FY2026 sales trends, and the business

Ami Terai

environment. We make upward revisions to our FY2026 estimates, due mainly

(81-3) 6736-8660

to expected increased demand for air conditioners prior to stricter ami.terai@jpmorgan.com

environmental regulations. We raise our operating profit estimate by 20%, Kazuha Matsuo

putting it 3% above the Bloomberg consensus estimate. However, we expect (81-3) 6736-8614

FY2027 sales to decline slightly YoY and operating profit to fall by around kazuha.matsuo@jpmorgan.com

13%, due mainly to a reactionary pullback in air conditioner demand. Our JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

FY2027 operating profit estimate is somewhat below the Bloomberg

consensus estimate.

Key Changes (FYE Mar)

• Raise price target, but maintain Neutral rating: Our end-2027 price target Prev Cur Δ

of ¥620 (previously ¥520 through end-2026) is based on a P/E of 12x Adj. EPS - 27E (¥) 48.91 57.41 17.4%