UK politics: Ten views on the path ahead

Research evidence excerpt

UK politics: Ten views on the path ahead

me of its large majority, another five years in

parliament and a fresh mandate from the electorate would

One of the main conclusions is that there are a number of enable Burnham to enact bolder policy changes. The main

spending pressures emerging, which we expect he will have barrier is not political will, but rather public perceptions

to accommodate. We expect higher day-to-day spending will and polling. We estimate that Labour would need to see

be met mainly by higher taxes targetted on wealth. Broader their polling share rise from the pre-Burnham average of

tax increases and bold reforms are more likely if Labour were 18% to almost 30% to put a slim victory within reach.

to secure a fresh mandate by calling and winning an early Tactical voting and large gains coming at the expense of

election. While this is not our base case, we see a strong polit- Reform - perhaps more likely now given the parliamenta-

ical incentive to do so were Labour’s polling standing to ry investigation into Nigel Farage - would lower the bar

improve sufficiently. While we expect near-term spending that Labour must clear. So far, Labour’s vote share has

pressures to be largely tax funded, we also see a high chance risen only modestly. Further gains appear likely, but Burn-

of a fiscal rule change designed to create space for a boost to ham faces the challenge of selling the public a clear justi-

public investment spending. Such spending would likely fication for why an early election would be in its interest.

stretch into the next parliament, and would have more limited

• Implications of Chancellor pick will be more nuanced.implications for near-term growth and BoE policy. That said, There has been a lot of focus on the choice of Chancellor