Alar Properties: Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Alar Properties: Model Update

Taher Safieddine, CFA AC CEEMEA Equity Research

(971) 4428-1654 14 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

taher.safieddine@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We maintain Aldar at OW and highlight the name as a catalyst-

driven, growth-oriented, quality play in the UAE real estate

space driven by: 1) A strong development business, growing

recurring portfolio, growth agenda driven by capex and M&A

pipeline; 2) A superior property franchise in a balanced/healthy

market with leading off-plan market share, a strategic land bank

and wide product offering; 3) A diversified recurring portfolio

with defensive attributes, higher-contribution from recently

executed M&A and growth angle from ongoing capex

YTD 1m 3m 12m deployment; and 4) A strong balance sheet with continued focus

Abs -8.3% 3.1% -1.5% -15.3% on progressive DPS and return.

Rel -25.7% 7.0% -8.9% -49.5%

Valuation

Company Data

We arrive at our PT using a SoTP analysis in which we value each

Shares O/S (mn) 7,863

52-week range (Dh) 11.80-7.03 of the company’s divisions separately:

Market cap ($ mn) 17,082.43 Property development: DCF valuation using a WACC of

Exchange rate 3.67

Free float (%) 45.9% 9.4%; International development: Reported book value;

3M ADV (mn) 18.43 Development management: DCF valuation using a WACC of

3M ADV ($ mn) 40.7 9.4% and exit cap rate of 5.5%; Recurring portfolio: DCF

Volatility (90 Day) 46

Index MXEF Index using a WACC of 9.4%, terminal growth rate of 2-3% and an exit

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 14|1|1 cap rate range of 7.5-8.5%; Land/Others: Adjusted book value

reported as of latest; adjust EV for net debt, leases and minority

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

in SODIC, Aldar Estates and AIP. SG&A and taxes: DCF using